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Economic Update for the week of 6/1/2012

Non-farm payrolls added only 69,000 which is within the statistical confidence interval of 129,000 which means that we cannot conclude that jobs were in fact added. In addition, the birth/death adjustment from the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) was 206,000 jobs which without such adjustment, the jobs numbers would have shown a loss of 137,000 jobs which is outside the confidence interval of 129,000. From this data I would tend to lean to the opinion that we lost a few jobs. Given the recent jobs numbers have been getting softer and softer and if it continues this way, eventually we may see true jobs loss. Even if we did add a few jobs, it is still not enough to even keep up with population growth.

The 10 year US Treasury fell under 1.5%; a historic low. Rates for mortgages should decline as well.

Chinese manufacturing reports came in flat and Indian GDP growth slows to 5%. Two of the countries which the global economy expected to pick up the slack are themselves slowing down.

US GDP for first quarter of 2012 is now estimated at 1.9%. The first estimate was for 2.5% followed by 2.2%.

The financial markets have been declining, jobs growth is slowing, and GDP estimates coming in slowly points to QE3 stimulus. We'll continue to wait and see what happens.

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